Polling guru declares which candidate wins 2024 election if it was held today

Polling guru Frank Luntz revealed on Wednesday which candidate would win if the election was held today and offered winning advice for both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris when it comes to the presidential contest.

Luntz, who has been called 'The Nostradamus of pollsters,' gave his analysis of the 2024 presidential race during a zoom event with No Labels, a nonpartisan political group.

He argued that, as of today, Harris has the advantage over Trump.

'Make no mistake, Trump's advantage with the Republican Convention after that ended is gone. It is wiped away. And if the election were held today, I actually believe that Harris would beat Trump. That's how much things have changed over the last two weeks,' he said.

Harris leads Trump by half a point the RealClearPolitics polling average. And several key battleground states have the two essentially tied. 

Luntz also pointed out, with a little more than three months to go before the November 5th election, the contest 'is up for grabs.'

And he had advice for each contender on how to win. 

'If this campaign is about inflation and immigration, Donald Trump wins. If it's about the attributes of the candidates, Kamala Harris wins,' he said.

'Trump is disliked as a person,' Luntz noted but acknowledged voters are happy with how Trump ran the country as president. 

But Joe Biden's administration is not well liked, he said, which hurts Harris - although 'she has the energy and excitement that voters do want.'

He said he would advise Trump to talk about the border, immigration, and the economy while Harris should focus on her vision for the country.

Trump, as of late, has been focused on personal attacks on Harris, offering two new nicknames in the past week - 'Kamabla' and 'Kamala Crash.' He's also questioned whether the first black president, is actually black. Harris has a black father and Indian mother.

Harris, for her part, has mocked Trump for his statements and focused on his personal failings, including his recent conviction in New York tied to a hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels. 

'I think both campaigns are miscalibrated right now and are not understanding the electorate. And so this election, quite frankly, frankly, is up for grabs,' Luntz said. 

Luntz made it clear in his hour-long conversation he was giving answers based on polling data that he was seeing and not because his favored a particular candidate.

He fielded questions from No Labels members on a variety of topics related to the 2024 contest. 

He has been polling in national elections since 1990s.

'In the end, voters tend to vote for the more optimistic candidate,' Luntz noted.

Of the election, he predicted: 'If it is based on issues, the election will swing to Trump. If it is based on candidate attributes, it will swing towards Harris. And we have no way of knowing where the campaign is going to go, because we don't know what Trump's going to say over the next 90 something days.'

The pollster also talked about Harris' decision to name Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her vice presidential nominee, saying he thought Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro would have been a more impactful choice.

But, he noted, Shapiro was also the more controversial choice. 

He shared his belief that Shapiro, who has been critical of the pro-Palestine protests in the United States, could have caused a backlash at the Democratic National Convention and in Michigan, a key battleground state with a large Muslim population. Progressives have been critical of the Biden administration for not doing enough to get humanitarian aid to the Gaza strip.

'By choosing Governor Waltz, she has avoided that. So I think that that was a major part of her consideration,' he said of Harris.

Luntz also said Walz appealed to the same voters that J.D. Vance - Trump's vice presidential nominee - appeals to but without Vance's baggage.

'The reason why she chose Waltz is that he is a happy warrior, and that he appeals to the same people that J.D. Vance appeals to, and he hasn't made statements about calling women without children, cat women. That's not helpful.'

Naming Walz as her running mate has caused both celebration and concern within the Democrats, and Republicans have said the opposition now has the most 'left-wing ticket' in history.

The former teacher is well-liked and a proven winner in Republican areas. His description of Trump and Vance as 'just weird' went viral and sparked a new Democrat line of attack in the campaign.

Vance, for his part, has been fighting back against past comments, like his cat one, and dealing with a false allegation he has sex with a couch. 

Harris and Walz are spending Wednesday in Wisconsin and Michigan, campaigning together as a unified ticket in the key battleground states. Vance is trailing them to make the Republican argument.

In the end, no matter who voters pick, Luntz predicted the winner of the White House will not be known until long past November's election night.

'We will not know on election night,' he said. 'In fact, let me go further. I don't think we're going to know when the morning shows come on the next morning, because I do believe that is going to be incredibly close.'